The cement exports from the country are likely to post impressive growth of 45% annually led by exports from the southern region in November 2019, reporting a jump of 58% to 0.5 million tons, mainly owing to huge clinker sales to Bangladesh amounting to 155,000 tons. However, exports volumes during 5MFY20 are expected to record 22% annual growth to 3.6 millon tons as compared to the same period of last year.
As per cement industry’s provisional statistics, Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) and Cherat Cement Limited (CHCC) are expected to post a massive jump in total sales by 84% YoY and 70% YoY to 480,000 tons and 302,000 tons, respectively. This was primarily led by healthy domestic sales and aggressive marketing after their capacity additions.
Industry experts said that DG Khan Cement (DGKC) is also likely to depict strong growth in volumes during Nov-2019 (+35% YoY to 728,000 tons) driven by higher exports.
On the other hand, Bestway Cement (BWCL) and Lucky Cement (LUCK) sales underperformed and are expected to record decline in sales by 6% YoY and 7% YoY, clocking in at around 658,000 tons tons and 632,000 tons, respectively. This is attributed to loss of market share owing to intense competition in the north region and curtailment of gas at LUCK Pezu plant. As per industry sources, during Nov-2019, total cement sales are expected to post a growth of 8% YoY to 4.3 million tons. During 5MFY20, total industry sales are expected to post growth of 5% YoY growth to 20.3 million tons. However, industry sales are likely to drop by 15% MoM during the month due to seasonal factors.
Domestic cement sales are likely to grow by 2% YoY to 3.4 million tons led by sales in the northern region (+9% YoY to 2.9 million tons). Experts said the growth was driven by dispatches to southern region and stocking by dealers. On the other hand, sales in the southern region are anticipated to continue its downward trajectory and post a decline of 25% YoY to 0.5 million tons primarily due to lower construction activity and competition from north manufacturers.